Critical Voter Survey, Ganjar Pranowo Remains the Best

Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) named Ganjar Pranowo as the presidential candidate who received the most votes from the critical voter group, namely 19.9 percent. Followed by Prabowo Subianto with 10.4 percent, and Anies Baswedan with 9.8 percent. Another name under 5 percent is Ridwan Kamil.

SMRC Research Director, Deni Irvani, said that Ganjar Pranowo’s position is still very strong at the top, based on measurements using spontaneous, semi-open answers with several lists of names, and closed simulations with few choices.

“If presidential elections were held now, who would be elected as President of the Republic of Indonesia. So, in this spontaneous question, we get the result where Ganjar Pranowo gets the spontaneous support of 19.9 percent of critical voters. Significantly superior to other candidates. In the next position, Prabowo Subianto is 10.4 percent, which is balanced with Anies Baswedan who gets 9.8 percent,” said Deni.

72% of Voters Known to be Critical

The critical group of voters who are the main respondents in this survey are those who have telephones and/or cellular phones, because they are considered “to have a greater opportunity to obtain socio-political information than those who do not have it,” and because they are considered “critical in assessing issues.” The number of critical voters with an indication of the owner of a telephone and/or cellular phone reaches around 72% of the total national voter population. They generally come from urban groups, are highly educated, and are interested in political issues.

SMRC said this critical voter was also characterized as someone who was not easily swayed or influenced, and could instead influence other voters. Candidates who have strong support from critical voters are suspected of having a greater advantage because they have the opportunity to increase support for them and at the same time maintain the support that has been achieved.

The survey was conducted on 8-10 February of 1,268 respondents aged 17 years and over who were randomly selected from this population and interviewed by telephone, conducted measurements with spontaneous answers and semi-open questions and closed simulations with few choices.

Survey Results Reinforce Previous Findings

Deni Irvani said that apart from this latest survey, several previous surveys also placed Ganjar Pranowo at the top of the vote for the presidential election. In the June 2021 survey with the highest 3 names simulation, the trend of Ganjar Pranowo remained consistent above Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto, with 30 percent for Ganjar Pranowo, around 20.4 percent for Prabowo Subianto, and Anis Baswedan getting 19.2 percent.

“Ganjar Pranowo’s superiority has not only happened recently, but since June at least three names have been simulated,” he added.

Defense Minister Prabowo Subiyanto is the second strongest presidential candidate in the SMRC survey (Photo: VOA/Nurhadi Sucahyo)

Defense Minister Prabowo Subiyanto is the second strongest presidential candidate in the SMRC survey (Photo: VOA/Nurhadi Sucahyo)

The founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani, said that in several surveys in the last two years, Prabowo Subianto has always competed fiercely with Anies Baswedan. According to him, this condition is very interesting to observe in the next two years, regarding the presidential election which is planned to take place in 2024.

“So, there is a tendency for Anies to be competitive with Pak Prabowo. And, as stated earlier, if this really happens continuously, then it is not impossible, Anies will become stronger than Pak Prabowo,” said Mujani. [pr/em]